Start with the company goal (and your piece of the pie)
Let’s say your company wants to go from $2M to $3M in ARR next year. That’s a $1M gap to fill.
Sam says the mistake most marketers make? Immediately jumping into tactics and spend.
Instead, Sam starts with sourcing data: historically, what % of revenue has marketing sourced? If marketing contributed 40% of last year’s $2M, then it’s reasonable to assume they’d own about $400k of the new $1M goal — unless something materially changes.
“I just go straight to historicals,” Sam says. “What did AE-sourced, BDR-sourced, marketing-sourced revenue look like? That gives you a baseline.”
This sounds simple, but too often marketing (or sales) operates in a vacuum. One team overperforms on leads, while the other underdelivers on revenue.
That’s why Sam pushes for alignment upfront — before anyone builds a plan.
Bottoms-up vs top-down: use both
After agreeing on marketing’s share of the goal, Sam runs two models:
- Bottoms-up: What did we achieve this year, and with what resources?
- Top-down: What’s our target next year, and what will it take to hit it?
“The delta sits in between,” he explains. “That’s where you start pressure-testing your plan.”
For example, if you did $250k sourced revenue this year with $500k in spend, and now you’re expected to deliver $400k next year, you’re going to need a 60% lift. That doesn’t happen without resourcing changes — or serious optimization.
The most overlooked lever: demo-to-opportunity conversion
Sam’s favorite lever isn’t budget. Or ad channels. Or SEO.
It’s fixing the handoff from lead to sales call.
“This is the most inefficient place in most funnels,” he says. “It’s where you’re playing chase, losing people, wasting time.”
If your demo-to-op conversion rate is 16%, bumping it to 22% can close the entire revenue gap without touching spend. Tools like Chili Piper (for self-scheduling and routing) can eliminate this friction entirely.
“Honestly, when you fix this, you barely have to touch anything else.”
It’s not sexy or new, but it’s high leverage. And most companies leave it untouched.
Don’t treat new channels like proven bets
What about those “big bets” — YouTube, a new content series, LinkedIn ads?
“Unless you’ve fully optimized your funnel, new channels should be treated as experiments — not forecasts,” Sam says.
He doesn’t commit to revenue from a new channel until it’s proven. Instead, he sets leading indicators (e.g., subscribers, impressions, attribution mentions) and defines exit criteria — what success looks like, and when to cut bait.
If a new channel works, great — it becomes a lever in the next plan. But it doesn't belong in this year’s target unless it’s already proven.
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