Clean your data. Model your funnel. Build forecasts your team believes in.
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Ever walked into a planning session where the forecast felt more like a wish than a plan? (me too). This week on Metrics & Chill, Bec Henrich of Traction Complete gives us a playbook to trade those “hopeful” numbers for a model that informs predictable growth. 

In this edition: 

  • From Wishful Thinking to Predictable Growth (w/ Bec Henrich)
  • Build Your Forecasting Model: Tools & Templates
  • Advanced Analytics Just Dropped — See What’s New in Databox
  • Upcoming DBUG Event: Turn LinkedIn Connections Into Clients
  • This Week’s Silo-Smashing GTM Reads

🎥 From Wishful Thinking to Predictable Growth

Forecasting isn’t a feeling. It’s a framework.

 

Too often, revenue targets are set at the top, reverse-engineered with best-case assumptions, and handed down like a mandate. Bec Henrich, Head of Marketing at Traction Complete, has made it her mission to move her team—and others—from wishful thinking to predictable growth. And she shared her playbook with us in the latest episode of Metrics & Chill.

 

The first mindset shift? Start in the middle of the funnel.

 

Instead of beginning with the final number and working backward (a surefire way to build an unrealistic plan), Bec recommends starting where you have the most visibility—leads, opportunities, and activities. Using historical conversion rates from leads to opportunities, and then from opportunities to closed deals, you can work forward to forecast revenue in a way that actually holds up under scrutiny.

 

Here’s the basic framework:

  • Project the volume of leads (based on history or planned campaigns)
  • Apply your lead-to-opportunity conversion rate
  • Layer in your opportunity-to-close rate
  • Multiply by average deal size

Even if you’re missing perfect data, don’t wait. Use industry benchmarks or your most consistent internal numbers to get started. 

 

“You can’t create math for everything, but you want to bring some predictability to what you can contribute as a team to the business.”

 

But that only works if your data is clean.

 

Forecasts built on messy data will always fall apart. Bec stressed the importance of aligning on definitions across your team—what counts as a lead, what’s a qualified opportunity, what source does that demo really belong to?

 

Then, standardize your CRM. Duplicates, outdated stages, and inconsistent tagging will break your model before it even begins.

 

And don’t make the mistake of thinking every quarter is created equal.

 

Another common forecasting failure? Assuming every month or quarter will perform the same. Bec cautions against ignoring seasonality—especially when your business has natural peaks and valleys driven by sales cycles, budget planning, or external events. A model that doesn’t account for those shifts won’t survive past Q1.

 

Perhaps most importantly, forecasting isn’t just Marketing’s job.

 

Getting Sales and RevOps involved early ensures buy-in and accuracy. If you're modeling conversion rates, make sure Sales aligns with those assumptions. If you're projecting average deal size or expected close rates, get confirmation from the folks who own the pipeline.

 

Bec’s team collaborates closely across functions to ensure their forecasts aren't just accepted—they’re embraced.

 

If your forecasting process feels like guesswork—or worse, like setting your team up to fail—this conversation will help you reset. It’s not about lowering the bar. It’s about building a path that your whole team believes in.

Get The Playbook

📦 Build Your Forecasting Model: Tools & Templates

Ready to put Bec's insights into action? Here are some resources to help you build a realistic forecasting model:

  • Free Google Sheet Template: Visit the playbook to get your free template.
  • Predict Future Performance: Learn how Metrics Forecasts help you view historical data and calculate highly accurate predictions of your most important metrics.
  • Benchmark Groups: Don’t have accurate historical data? Browse industry benchmarks to see where you’re ahead of the curve, and where you have opportunity to improve. 

🌟 Advanced Analytics Just Dropped — See What’s New in Databox

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On May 7, we unveiled our most requested advanced analytics features, including Datasets, a multi-dimension metric builder, metric drill-downs, and more.

👉 Watch the launch event replay (14 mins)

📆 Upcoming DBUG Event: Turn LinkedIn Connections Into Clients

LinkedIn has evolved beyond networking. It’s now a powerful sales channel driving real business growth. So how are people getting results?

 

Join us for an interactive 60-minute online session as we discuss findings from our latest survey and learn what works from experts (and each other).

 

🔗 Register for the event

✍️ Take the survey to share your experiences and challenges.

🔗 This week’s silo-smashing GTM reads

Share with a colleague and tear down those walls!

  • How Leading Teams Get to 90% Forecasting Accuracy (RevOps Co-op)
  • The Surprisingly High Costs of a Messy CRM (Simple Strat)
  • The Art of Forecasting: Strategic Planning for Sales Success in 2025 (Modern Sales Pros)

📣 How'd we do?


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