Forecasting isn’t a feeling. It’s a framework.
Too often, revenue targets are set at the top, reverse-engineered with best-case assumptions, and handed down like a mandate. Bec Henrich, Head of Marketing at Traction Complete, has made it her mission to move her team—and others—from wishful thinking to predictable growth. And she shared her playbook with us in the latest episode of Metrics & Chill.
The first mindset shift? Start in the middle of the funnel.
Instead of beginning with the final number and working backward (a surefire way to build an unrealistic plan), Bec recommends starting where you have the most visibility—leads, opportunities, and activities. Using historical conversion rates from leads to opportunities, and then from opportunities to closed deals, you can work forward to forecast revenue in a way that actually holds up under scrutiny.
Here’s the basic framework:
- Project the volume of leads (based on history or planned campaigns)
- Apply your lead-to-opportunity conversion rate
- Layer in your opportunity-to-close rate
- Multiply by average deal size
Even if you’re missing perfect data, don’t wait. Use industry benchmarks or your most consistent internal numbers to get started.
“You can’t create math for everything, but you want to bring some predictability to what you can contribute as a team to the business.”
But that only works if your data is clean.
Forecasts built on messy data will always fall apart. Bec stressed the importance of aligning on definitions across your team—what counts as a lead, what’s a qualified opportunity, what source does that demo really belong to?
Then, standardize your CRM. Duplicates, outdated stages, and inconsistent tagging will break your model before it even begins.
And don’t make the mistake of thinking every quarter is created equal.
Another common forecasting failure? Assuming every month or quarter will perform the same. Bec cautions against ignoring seasonality—especially when your business has natural peaks and valleys driven by sales cycles, budget planning, or external events. A model that doesn’t account for those shifts won’t survive past Q1.
Perhaps most importantly, forecasting isn’t just Marketing’s job.
Getting Sales and RevOps involved early ensures buy-in and accuracy. If you're modeling conversion rates, make sure Sales aligns with those assumptions. If you're projecting average deal size or expected close rates, get confirmation from the folks who own the pipeline.
Bec’s team collaborates closely across functions to ensure their forecasts aren't just accepted—they’re embraced.
If your forecasting process feels like guesswork—or worse, like setting your team up to fail—this conversation will help you reset. It’s not about lowering the bar. It’s about building a path that your whole team believes in.
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